合作与破裂:山东地方官与大刀会关系研究

山东地方官对大刀会、拳会的宽容的政策与态度由来已久，早在甲午中日战争期间，官军就与大刀会形成默契，在共同缉捕盗匪方面取得显著成效，直至义和团在中外联合势力的绞杀下失败，在此期间，大刀会、拳会等名目的民间团体组织与官府的关系就处在一种半合作半破裂的游离状态，即这种宽容政策具有一定的延续性。就义和团运动而言，大刀会等民间会社势力仅仅是为义和团运动构筑的可能性力量而已，程度很高，却极不稳定，它们有待于官方的开掘、引导与锤炼及外力催逼，即官方对刀会、拳会的宽容态度与政策，以及西方列强、教会势力的威逼现实这两种因素，而前者更为重要。     

Probabilistic population projections for countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics

In 2015, the United Nations (UN) issued probabilistic population projections for all countries up to 2100, by simulating future levels of total fertility and life expectancy and combining the results using a standard cohort component projection method. For the 40 countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics, the mortality projections used the Spectrum/Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) model, a complex, multistate model designed for short-term projections of policy-relevant quantities for the epidemic. We propose a simpler approach that is more compatible with existing UN projection methods for other countries. Changes in life expectancy are projected probabilistically using a simple time series regression and then converted to age- and sex-specific mortality rates using model life tables designed for countries with HIV/AIDS epidemics. These are then input to the cohort component method, as for other countries. The method performed well in an out-of-sample cross-validation experiment. It gives similar short-run projections to Spectrum/EPP, while being simpler and avoiding multistate modelling.     

Seroadaptive Strategies of Vancouver Gay and Bisexual Men in a Treatment as Prevention Environment

British Columbia’s treatment as prevention policy has provided free access to highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) to all HIV-positive provincial residents since 1996. One outcome is an increase in HIV-positive gay and bisexual men (GBM) with suppressed viral loads. Previous cross-sectional analyses indicated that some Vancouver GBM now recognize condomless anal sex with men on HAART who report a suppressed viral load as a seroadaptive strategy. To test the hypothesis that this new strategy, termed viral load sorting (VLS), is recognized and used among by GBM in the Momentum Health Study, we analyzed longitudinal data for HIV-negative/unknown (n = 556) and HIV-positive (n = 218) serostatus participants. Analyses indicated that both groups reported VLS, and that serostatus and Treatment Optimism Scale scores were significant determinants in frequency and use. Results exemplify the medicalization of sex and Rogers’ Diffusion Of Preventative Innovations Model, and they have important implications for HIV research and GBM sexual decision-making.     

Service diversification and growth of professional service firms

This study investigates the impact of service diversification on the rate and mode of firm growth in professional service firms (PSFs). Drawing on the extant PSF literature, we identify differing views regarding the growth impact of service diversification. Specifically, some scholars suggest that the external client benefits associated with service diversification should allow PSFs to expand revenues at a rapid pace and pursue less merger and acquisition activity, whereas others imply that increased diversification can cause internal challenges with respect to learning costs, coordination and innovation that can limit the rate of revenue growth and encourage more mergers and acquisitions. We test these competing views using longitudinal data on 137 accounting firms and cross-sectional data on 125 law firms and find that service diversification is negatively associated with the rate of firm revenue growth and positively associated with the use of mergers and acquisitions.     

需求率受推广努力水平影响的新能源汽车租赁系统协调契约

考虑由新能源汽车租赁企业和政府组成的二级系统，在需求率为随机且与推广努力水平相关的市场环境下，建立了新能源汽车租赁企业和政府之间的博弈模型，探讨了分散决策、集中决策、收益共享与成本共担契约下的最优车队配置和推广努力水平，并对三种情形下的最优决策进行了比较和分析。研究结果表明：在分散决策情况下无法实现系统协调，通过引入成本共担与收益共享组合契约，当契约参数满足一定条件时，该组合契约模型不仅可以实现系统协调而且可以使系统成员达到帕累托改进。最后通过算例分析，验证了模型了可靠性和有效性。     

新时期大学生思想政治教育的现状与对策

大学生的思想政治教育在时代背景、社会环境和大学生自身素质等方面都呈现出了与以往不同的特点。大学生思想政治教育亟需深刻的改革和创新。通过分析当前大学生思想政治教育的现状以及存在的问题，提出相应的对策进行研究。     

信息技术背景下教育教学多维度创新体系研究

“互联网+”、3D打印技术为代表的信息化浪潮已经到来，创新创业教育的已经在全国展开，这既是高等教育教学的挑战，更是不可多得的机遇。为适应信息技术的需求，高等院校要未雨绸缪，及时应对，从创新体系构建信息技术要先行、教育教学创新体系构建要结合学科、专业特点进行、二级学院联动、对教师要求及激励等多个方面探讨信息技术背景下教育教学多维度创新体系。     

Women and border policing at the edges of Europe

While states around the world have responded to mass mobility by increasing border policing, our knowledge of the daily reality of that form of policing remains limited. How migrant women are policed has been particularly neglected. The political and practical difficulty of examining the context, process and experience of border control practices appears often to be insurmountable. This article contributes to filling some of the gaps in our knowledge by drawing on ethnographic data collected over a 12-month period in Greek immigration detention centres from 2011 to 2012. In it we examine the experience of policing and irregular entry across the Greek Turkey border – an entry-point to Europe that is routinely regarded as being in crisis. As we will demonstrate, border policing at this site is capricious and unpredictable. It is also highly racialised and gendered.     

Risk Modeling of Interdependent Complex Systems of Systems: Theory and Practice

The emergence of the complexity characterizing our systems of systems (SoS) requires a reevaluation of the way we model, assess, manage, communicate, and analyze the risk thereto. Current models for risk analysis of emergent complex SoS are insufficient because too often they rely on the same risk functions and models used for single systems. These models commonly fail to incorporate the complexity derived from the networks of interdependencies and interconnectedness (I–I) characterizing SoS. There is a need to reevaluate currently practiced risk analysis to respond to this reality by examining, and thus comprehending, what makes emergent SoS complex. The key to evaluating the risk to SoS lies in understanding the genesis of characterizing I–I of systems manifested through shared states and other essential entities within and among the systems that constitute SoS. The term “essential entities” includes shared decisions, resources, functions, policies, decisionmakers, stakeholders, organizational setups, and others. This undertaking can be accomplished by building on state‐space theory, which is fundamental to systems engineering and process control. This article presents a theoretical and analytical framework for modeling the risk to SoS with two case studies performed with the MITRE Corporation and demonstrates the pivotal contributions made by shared states and other essential entities to modeling and analysis of the risk to complex SoS. A third case study highlights the multifarious representations of SoS, which require harmonizing the risk analysis process currently applied to single systems when applied to complex SoS.     

面向服务的复杂成形装备产品架构设计与优化

复杂成形装备作为高端制造产业的基础装备，是各产业转型升级和技术进步的重要保障。同时快速发展的互联网与大数据等新兴信息技术已经成为装备制造业创新不可或缺的组成部分，极其深刻地影响着复杂成形装备产业的制造模式、发展战略以及产品的开发方式。本文研究了面向服务的复杂成形装备产品架构设计与优化方法。采用公理化设计的域结构思想，建立需求域、功能域和架构域之间的映射关系；提出了基于QFD的功能生成方法以及功能模型约简方法；利用DMM建立产品架构和服务架构之间的关联关系；利用模块化理论方法，并考虑成本因素对产品架构进行优化。